For those of you who are not aware, Horse racing is big business in many parts of the world, with the UK, Ireland, USA, and Australia being some of the biggest. When looking at a race card, you may see various information about each horse, including its last few race positions, its trainer and jockey, etc.
But a horse’s odds of winning the race a day before could be 30/1 and then suddenly be 7/2 10 minutes before the race starts, so why is that? (Sorry for those who bet in decimals for the odds; I’m a fractions guy.)
The initial winning odds for a horse to win a race are based on its form and the form of the other horses within the race, so horse A may be 30/1 to win and horse B, the favourite, to win at 2/1.
However, the more people who bet on a horse or, the more money that is a bet on a horse to win a race, the bigger the payout liability to the bookie if that horse goes on to win, resulting in a horse whose 30/1 5 hours before the race going all the way down to even money and becoming the new favourite to limit that liability. Which is the bookies covering their own arses. Even if they don’t think that the horse will go on to win, they still have to mitigate that potential risk.
Now you may be thinking, so what? Surely, the horse who was 2/1 all along will win anyway, but you haven’t heard the saying ‘You got to be in it to win it’ and that some horses who’ve been 100/1 at the start of the race have gone on to win.
So sometimes, it may be worth a punt on the outsider, as you never know who will win on the day.
